Toward Carbon Neutrality in Philippine Higher Education: Scenario Modeling of Energy, Mobility, and Nature-Based Offsets at JRMSU

Abstract

Higher education institutions (HEIs) play a critical role in climate action, yet resource-constrained universities in the Global South often lack clear frameworks for achieving carbon neutrality. This study builds on the 2025 electronic Greenhouse Gas Inventory (eGHGi) of Jose Rizal Memorial State University (JRMSU), which reported baseline emissions of 640.06 tCO₂e, and applies scenario modeling to evaluate offset strategies aligned with Philippine legal mandates and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Three categories of interventions were analyzed: energy measures (1 MW rooftop solar photovoltaic [PV], LED retrofits, diesel generator hybridization), mobility programs (electric shuttle service, bike-to-campus incentives, carpooling), and nature-based solutions (50 hectares of mangrove rehabilitation, 1,000 campus trees annually). Emission factors were drawn from the Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). Results showed that solar PV could offset ~720 tCO₂e annually, complemented by 35–65 tCO₂e from efficiency and hybridization; mobility strategies contributed 23–33 tCO₂e annually; and nature-based interventions sequestered 170–270 tCO₂e over a 5–7 year horizon. The integrated portfolio achieved a net-negative carbon balance within three to five years. The study concludes that scenario modeling is an effective, policy-aligned tool for HEIs to institutionalize carbon neutrality, supporting national commitments under the Climate Change Act, the NDC, and advancing SDGs 7, 11, 13, 14, and 15.